Your calculation for takt are absolutely right taking an average demand is the wrong part. We take maybe a six month look ahead in orders that is the customer demand. Takt may change up to 8 times a year on some value streams.
In aerospace we had 9 different aircraft types one would be on a move rate of three a week some one a month each had an individual takt time based on the demand for that product.
The cycle time of each key stage or process was then evaluated if it was greater than takt you had to in goldratt terms exploit the constraint. You would create a yamazumi or line balance chart to identify the constrained stages from seeing this you can do many things .
Identify Value and Non Value add. eliminate the waste to get below takt. Introduce shifts on some stages or create identical stages called rate tooling. So you never under or overproduce as you are asking because the speed of your line increases and decreases with customer demand by flexing tooling positions and manpower.
Usually you had the luxury of one value stream getting faster as another slows down moving your manpower onto different contracts.
Hope you get this
All The Best
Hi Orry, thank you for the feedback. Yes I considered adding Sloan into my response, but more people are familiar with the Jack Welch approach to management. I would assume his approach to ROI was influenced by GM under Sloan. From your perspective are there any changes from a business school higher education perspective to change from giving answers to asking questions? I don’t completely understand why it’s considered a weakness to ask questions. Lawyers have legal briefings in which they ask questions, doctors have a standard work up for patients, just as nurses do to a lesser degree. When training new doctors the Physician asks questions to help the resident form their own diagnosis. They do not tell the resident what the diagnosis is, but force them to think deeply and critically to form their own. Lawyers are taught using the Socratic approach. Sounds similar to good lean coaching?